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Revalorisation à venir du seuil de pauvreté de la banque mondiale.


FabriceM

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La Banque mondiale serait sur le point de réviser le critère utilisé internationalement pour identifier les situations d'existence à la limite de la survie

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La Banque mondiale va relever le 4 octobre le revenu en dessous duquel un individu est considéré dans l'extrême pauvreté, le faisant passer de 1,25 dollar par jour à 1,90 par jour, selon une source proche de l'institution internationale.

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Interrogée, la Banque mondiale, n'a pas confirmé le chiffre, déclarant que "le critère de l'extrême pauvreté est en train d'être ajusté" sur la base du critère des parités de pouvoir d'achat (PPP), qui permettent de mesurer le pouvoir d'achat réel dans un pays en fonction du coût de la vie.

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Ce niveau avait été établi en 2005.

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En 2011, un peu plus d'un milliard de personnes disposaient donc de moins de 1,25 dollar par jour pour vivre, contre 1,91 milliard en 1990 et 1,93 milliard en 1981",

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selon le Financial Times, des chercheurs de la Banque ont récemment calculé qu'un plafond à 1,92 dollar provoquerait une augmentation de 148 millions du nombre de personnes dans l'extrême pauvreté, avec des hausses notamment en Asie et en Amérique latine.

http://www.latribune.fr/economie/international/le-seuil-de-pauvrete-bientot-releve-de-1-24-a-1-90-dollar-par-jour-508200.html

 

Il me semble que cette modification pose plusieurs questions.

  • Comment un indicateur aussi important en regard des missions de l'ONU peut-il rester intouché pendant 10 ans ?
  • Comment prendre au sérieux un indicateur de pauvreté extrême, censé définir un niveau de survie, dont le niveau peut varier arbitrairement de 50%, avec pour conséquence un saut de 15% du nombre de personnes  affectées ?
  • Au fond, quelle est la valeur de cet indicateur ? Il n'est possible de survivre avec 1,9 dollars par jour que si cette somme est entièrement dédiée à la satisfaction des besoins primaires que sont l'acquisiton de nourriture, d'eau, et d'un semblant de logement permettant de ne pas mourir de froid. Or, dans l'idée, mesurer l'accès à la nourriture des paysans au fin fond de la RDC  ne semble pas moins difficile que de mesurer leur revenu, mais semble beaucoup plus pertinent pour rendre compte de l'état réel de leur situation. Avec tout un tas d'erreurs potentielles en moins (conversion, pouvoir d'achat, inflation, autre).

Pensez vous que malgré tout, les seuils de pauvreté extrême en $ par jour aient un intérêt ? Un intérêt pour promouvoir le libéralisme ? Eventuellement, quels ajustments seraient nécessaires pour que ce soit le cas ?

 

Note : Détails sur l'indicateur, d'après la banque mondiale.

The underlying data

  • Data sources: The distributional data used here are drawn from nationally representative household surveys, which are conducted by national statistical offices or by private agencies under the supervision of government or international agencies and obtained from government statistical offices and World Bank Group country departments.
  • Price indices: the best available CPI for the country with documentation is used. A spatial price index (SPI) has only been used when the base is national average and consistent over time with documentation.
  • Micro data (household level data) vs. grouped data: recently access to micro data has improved dramatically. Primary distributions in PovcalNet are calculated from household level data directly. Few of them are from the country’s statistical office.
  • The data base in PovcalNet is primarily a set of grouped tabulations in a harmonized data structure. Parametric Lorenz Curves are used for the estimation purposes when they are expected to provide close estimates to the micro data. However, when the parametric models are unlikely to work well (notably when using incomes with a bunching up at zero) PovcalNet estimates directly from the micro data.
  • The same PPPs are used to convert the international lines to local currency units (LCUs). Three countries were treated differently, China, India and Indonesia. In all three we used separate urban and rural distributions. For China, the ICP survey was confined to 11 cities, and the evidence suggests that the cost-of-living is lower for the poor in rural areas (Chen and Ravallion, 2010). We treat the ICP PPP as an urban PPP for China and use the ratio of urban to rural national poverty lines to derive the corresponding rural poverty line in local currency units (Chen and Ravallion 2010). For India, the ICP included rural areas, but they were underrepresented. We derived urban and rural poverty lines consistent with both the urban-rural differential in the national poverty lines and the relevant features of the design of the ICP samples for India; further details can be found in Ravallion (2008c). For Indonesia, we converted the international poverty line to LCUs using the official consumption PPP from the 2005 ICP. We then unpack that poverty line to derive implicit urban and rural lines that are consistent with the ratio of the national urban-to-rural lines for Indonesia.
  • The regional and global population for low and middle income countries may differ from the current WDI, because PovcalNet uses the classification of low and middle income countries at 1990, while current WDI excludes the countries that graduated since then. When the user adds up the populations of the countries in a region in PovcalNet, the sum is less than the regional total since the regional total in PovcalNet also includes countries without a household survey or missing the PPP or other data.
  • The per capita income/consumption used in PovcalNet is household income/consumption expenditure dividing by the household size.
Data limitations

No data are ideal. International comparisons of poverty estimates entail both conceptual and practical problems that should be understood by users.

An important step in the process of compiling global poverty estimates is the conversion of the $1.25 a day international poverty line into respective national currency units. PPP exchange rates, such as those from the International Comparison Program or the Penn World Tables, are used because they take into account the local prices of goods and services not traded internationally. Although PPP rates were designed for comparing aggregates from national accounts, they were not intended for making international poverty comparisons. PPPs are based on prices of goods and services that may not be representative of the consumption baskets of the poor, so they may not fully reflect the relative price level faced by very poor consumers. As a result, there is no certainty that an international poverty line measures the same degree of need or deprivation across countries. Similarly, the poverty line may need to be adjusted for different locations (such as urban and rural areas) within the country, if prices or access to goods and services differs. However, for most of countries, this information is not available.

Discrepancy between the national accounts and household surveys also make the poverty estimates more difficult. There is no reason why these sources would agree closely on consumption, as they are not strictly measuring the same thing. But large discrepancies are still of concern, as they may reflect measurement errors.

There are also problems with comparability of surveys, both over time and across countries. Household survey questionnaires can differ widely, and similar surveys may not be strictly comparable because of differences in quality. These problems are diminishing as survey methods improve and become more standardized, but achieving strict comparability is still impossible. Under-reporting of income and selective compliances are other sources of measurement errors, these problems are unlikely to be distribution neutral.

 

 http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?0,2

 

Note2 : Les papiers de référence de la banque mondiale dans le lien ci dessus citent beaucoup un certain Martin Ravallion. Qui a étonnemant publié un billet, récemment, sur une possibile sous pondération du cout de la nourriture dans les ajustements en parité de pouvoir d'achat dans les mesures de pauvreté.

http://www.cgdev.org/blog/rising-food-prices-poor-countries-new-clue-those-puzzling-ppp-revisions

Ce n'est pas pour autant qu'il fait la promotion de mesures plus directes, mais ça montre à quel point les mesures actuelles sont imparfaites.

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Cela me fait penser à l'indicateur de qualité d'air dont on baisse les seuils d'alerte pour avoir toujours des alertes à déclencher.

 

Plus sérieusement il faudrait que cet indicateur soit modifier selon une règle connue à l'avance sinon on tombe dans l'arbitraire le plus totale. Si l'estimation faite à l'époque était correcte alors sa revalorisation automatique annuelle via la correction par l'inflation me semble  intéressant.

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The number of people living in extreme poverty is set to fall to the lowest on record, according to the World Bank.

The proportion of the global population living on less than $1.90 per day will fall to 9.6 percent this year, the Washington-based development bank said in a report released Sunday.

That still leaves about 700 million people who can’t afford the basic goods and services needed to survive. But it’s the first time the rate has dropped below 10 percent, and it’s well below the rate of 37.1 percent in 1990.

The following chart shows the decline in extreme poverty over the last quarter century.

One of the World Bank’s goals is to end extreme poverty by 2030. But reaching that milestone will be difficult, since many of the remaining poor live in fragile states racked by conflict, according to the bank’s chief executive, Jim Yong Kim.

“Much of the low-hanging fruit has been picked,” Kim told reporters on a conference call.

Almost half of the world’s extreme poor live in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the 2015 projection. That's up from about 15 percent in 1990. By contrast, there have been dramatic declines in poverty in East and South Asia over the same period as China and India emerged as economic powers.

“In the areas where there are large numbers of people living in extreme poverty, extreme poverty has deepened and become more embedded,” said Kim.

In addition to the new projection, the World Bank raised its definition of extreme poverty to income of $1.90 per day, from $1.25. The new poverty line adjusts for inflation using 2011 prices that account for purchasing power as a baseline.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-05/extreme-poverty-in-the-world-is-about-to-hit-a-record-low

 

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